SoFi Technologies Stock Analysis — SOFI

Latest quarter summary

• $1.1B GAAP net revenue (+43% YoY)
• $166.7M GAAP net income and $0.12 diluted EPS
• $339.9M adjusted EBITDA with 31% margin
• 14.7M members, +35% YoY and 22.2M products, +39% YoY
• 2026 adjusted net revenue around $4.655B, adjusted EBITDA around $1.6B, adjusted net income around $825M, adjusted EPS around $0.60

Valuation

At roughly around $15.70, SOFI sits inside the FinanceToGo fair value range, not deep inside the margin-of-safety zone.

Fair value range: $14–$18.

Buy zone: below roughly $12–$13, or higher only if credit losses stay controlled and EPS guidance keeps rising.

What improved

• Adjusted net revenue grew 41% year over year to a record level.
• Adjusted EBITDA grew 62% and margin reached 31%.
• Members grew 35% and product count grew 39%, showing the app is still adding scale.
• Loan originations reached a record $12.2B, with strength across personal, student, and home loans.
• Book value and tangible book value per share kept rising.

What got worse / still needs proof

• The stock already prices in a lot more success than it did when SOFI was a beaten-down story.
• Credit risk matters because loan growth is a major part of the bull case.
• Technology Platform accounts were down year over year after a large client transition.
• The valuation depends on adjusted earnings growth continuing, not just reported member growth.

Bull case

• SoFi is building a member-centric financial super app with lending, banking, investing, credit card, and technology-platform exposure.
• Member and product growth suggest cross-selling is working, not just one product carrying the story.
• Deposits lower funding costs and can make lending economics more durable if credit stays healthy.
• If adjusted EPS compounds from the 2026 guide and credit stays controlled, the current price can be reasonable.

Bear case

• A fast-growing lender can look best right before credit losses become a bigger issue.
• The stock already trades like investors believe the platform story, not like a distressed fintech.
• Technology Platform weakness after client churn shows the non-lending story still needs consistency.
• If loan losses rise, funding costs pressure spreads, or EPS guidance stalls, the multiple can compress.

Key risks

What I’m watching

• Member growth staying above 30% year over year
• Net interest margin and deposit funding cost
• Personal-loan charge-offs and credit commentary
• Adjusted EBITDA margin near or above 30%
• Adjusted EPS path versus the $0.60 2026 guide
• Technology Platform accounts returning to durable growth